CATDOLL : CATDOLL: What is the market situation for ducklings in 2022?

What is the market situation for ducklings in 2022?

In 2022, the national average price of ducklings was 3.27 yuan/bird. The price of ducklings remained low in the first half of the year, with the national average price being 2.23 yuan/bird. In the second half of the year, the price of ducklings continued to hit highs, with the national average price being 5.11 yuan/bird.

In the first quarter, the overall market was sluggish. Affected by the epidemic control and multiple increases in feed prices, market trading was limited, restocking sentiment was not good, and prices continued to fluctuate at a low level.

In the second quarter, the supply of ducklings in the national market was insufficient in the early stage, the number of live ducks slaughtered decreased and the price rose slightly. In the later period, due to the high cost and weak support of the supply side and the impact of the epidemic, some breeding ends were active in slaughtering ducks for the sake of risk prevention and control. At the same time, market transactions in many places were restricted and prices were mainly stable.

In the third quarter, the seedling price rebounded after falling, and the main factors pushing up the price were several aspects. First, the market price of live pigs rose, and the market for chickens and ducks, as substitutes, was optimistic; second, the price of feed dropped slightly, which made farmers optimistic about the future market and actively replenished their stocks; third, farmers who were unable to replenish their stocks due to rainy weather in the early stage concentrated on replenishing their stocks after the seedling price rose, pushing up the seedling price; finally, the late stage of slaughter corresponds to the Mid-Autumn Festival, which is the peak season in previous years, and most of them are optimistic about the market.

In the fourth quarter, ducklings as a whole showed a downward trend from a high level. After the price of ducklings hit the bottom, frozen duck manufacturers planned to increase the number of ducklings. Some breeding poultry farms stopped producing ducklings ahead of schedule, and the small quantity provided short-term support. However, the market soon became weak, and the plan to shrink ducklings continued to limit prices. At the end of the quarter, demand slowly recovered, the duckling plan was accelerated, large-scale frozen duck factories began to resume supply, and production started to improve. Actual transactions have improved significantly.

The average annual price of breeding eggs in 2022 was 2.19 yuan per egg, the national average price of breeding eggs in the first half of the year was 2.23 yuan per egg, and the national average price of breeding eggs in the second half of the year was 3.07 yuan per egg.

In the first quarter, due to the impact of epidemic control, overall trading was hindered. Under the condition of travel restrictions, terminal consumption power was insufficient and quotations continued to be low;

In the second quarter, the epidemic situation improved, traffic control in various places was gradually lifted, prices rebounded after falling, the market improved, breeders and frozen plants were optimistic about the future market, and stocking was accelerated;

In the early third quarter, due to the hot weather in the main production areas, the hatching volume of breeding eggs was insufficient, the fertilization rate and hatching rate of breeding eggs decreased, and the profit was insufficient. The effect of capacity reduction was obvious. In the later period, due to the bullish outlook for the fourth quarter, the slaughter end was actively put into production. In addition, the effect of capacity reduction in the early period was obvious, the egg production rate was insufficient, and the egg price continued to rise, breaking through the high price at one point. It is expected that the price of breeding eggs may continue to rise in the near future;

In the early fourth quarter, the hatching sentiment was not good, coupled with the downstream price limit measures, there was a local selling sentiment, and the market confidence was insufficient. After the middle of the month, the seedling price almost bottomed out. Practitioners were optimistic about the later market conditions, and the trading volume increased in the short term. The demand side supported the price of breeding eggs, and the price of breeding eggs gradually rose.

At present, the elimination of breeding ducks in the early stage of breeding poultry is relatively concentrated across the country, and the production of reserve breeding ducks is mostly concentrated in March and April. The egg production of parent-generation breeding ducks is still in short supply compared with the downstream supply. Mysteel Agricultural Products predicts that the average price of domestic breeding eggs in the first and second quarters of 2023 will be higher than that in the first and second quarters of 2022, and the monthly average price may be 3.10-3.50 yuan per egg. In terms of terminal demand, traditional holidays are concentrated in the second half of the year, which will provide a certain boost to downstream product consumption.